Circana’s U.S. CPG Demand Signals: The Agentic Retail Execution Response

U.S. CPG volumes are declining and that changes the competitive landscape

The most critical finding in Circana’s latest U.S. CPG Demand Signals report is the decline in unit volume.

During the latest four-week period:

• Retail food and beverage volume declined 1.1%
• Even excluding produce, volume declined 0.5%
• Non-food CPG unit sales declined 1.9%

This is the signal CPG leaders cannot afford to overlook.

When market volume declines, brands are competing for fewer purchases. Every unit becomes harder to win, every lost sale becomes more consequential, and every execution failure gives competitors a greater opportunity to take share.

Price/mix continued to grow 1.9% in food and beverage and 4.0% in non-food CPG but this can obscure the underlying pressure. Dollar sales may be supported by higher prices or premium product mix while consumers purchase fewer physical units.

The strategic priority is therefore clear: protect volume and win a greater share of the remaining demand.

Competition is intensifying at the shelf

Circana reports that U.S. shoppers are managing pressure on household budgets by reducing quantities, choosing smaller packs and becoming more selective about what they buy.

Consumers may still prefer familiar brands, but that preference does not guarantee a purchase. The product must be available in the right format, at the right price and in the right location when the shopper is ready to buy.

An out-of-stock, missing pack size, incorrect price, unavailable promotional SKU or poorly executed display is no longer simply a compliance issue. It is an invitation to choose a competitor or leave the category without purchasing.

As volumes decline, the shelf becomes the most immediate battleground for protecting revenue and market share.

Retail Execution becomes a volume-protection capability

Traditional Retail Execution has focused heavily on collecting data, completing standard tasks and reporting compliance.

A declining-volume market demands more.

CPG companies need to identify which stores, SKUs and execution gaps put the greatest volume at risk. Field teams must be able to resolve those issues during the visit, while headquarters needs immediate visibility into problems that require action beyond the store.

Retail Execution must evolve from documenting lost opportunities to recovering them.

Five priorities for protecting volume

1. Eliminate avoidable out-of-stocks

When fewer units are being purchased across the market, brands cannot afford to lose demand they have already earned.

Field teams must detect missing products, determine whether inventory is available in the back room, replenish the shelf and escalate unresolved availability issues immediately.

Learning about an out-of-stock several days later may improve reporting, but it cannot recover the lost sale.

2. Secure the right pack sizes

Circana’s findings suggest that shoppers are often managing budgets by buying fewer units or choosing smaller packs.
Brand-level availability is therefore not enough. The specific SKU and pack size that matches the shopper’s budget must be available.

Execution teams should validate:

• Entry-price and smaller pack availability
• Core and high-velocity SKUs
• Multipacks and value formats
• Promotional packs
• Shelf position and visibility by format

The wrong assortment can create an effective out-of-stock even when the brand remains present on the shelf.

3. Convert promotional investment into volume

In a value-conscious market, promotions can influence which brand wins the purchase. But only if they are executed correctly.
Missing promotional inventory, incorrect pricing, absent point-of-sale materials and non-compliant displays directly reduce the ability of promotions to generate incremental units.

CPG companies need in-visit visibility into price, promotion, display and inventory compliance – along with the ability to correct gaps before the promotional window closes.

4. Prioritize actions by commercial impact

Not every store problem represents the same volume opportunity.

Field teams need to know which missing SKU, display issue or promotional gap matters most in each location. Store priorities should reflect local demand, historical sales, current inventory, assortment, promotional activity and the estimated value of each execution opportunity.

This requires dynamic, store-specific action plans rather than identical checklists for every visit.

5. Escalate unresolved issues instantly

Many shelf problems cannot be resolved by a merchandiser alone.

Inventory may be unavailable. A promotion may not be active in the retailer’s system. The agreed assortment may not have been authorized. A recurring distribution problem may require action from supply chain, sales, category management or the key account team.

These issues need to reach the right decision-maker immediately—not remain buried in a visit report.

The Agentic Retail Execution response

AI Agents make it possible to connect shelf conditions directly to action.

An AI Merchandising Agent can:

• Analyze shelves using image or video recognition
• Detect out-of-stocks and assortment gaps
• Identify missing priority pack sizes
• Validate prices, promotions and displays
• Estimate which issues carry the greatest commercial impact
• Generate a store-specific action plan
• Guide the merchandiser through execution
• Validate task completion
• Recommend replenishment or an order
• Escalate unresolved issues to the appropriate headquarters team

This creates an instant closed loop between headquarters strategy and store-level execution.

Instead of receiving retrospective confirmation that volume opportunities were lost, CPG leaders can see what was wrong, what was corrected, what remains unresolved and who needs to act next.

Winning when fewer units are available

Circana’s report points to a more competitive U.S. CPG market.

Consumers are buying fewer units. Price growth may support revenue temporarily, but sustainable performance will depend on protecting physical demand and winning share from competitors.

That makes execution quality more valuable not less.

The brands positioned to win will be those that consistently secure availability, offer the right pack-price architecture, execute promotions correctly and resolve store-level issues before the shopper opportunity disappears.

In a declining-volume market, every unit matters. Agentic Retail Execution helps CPG companies identify, prioritize and recover those units at scale.