Circana’s September CPG Signal: Non-Food Units Fall 1.1% as Dollar Sales Rise 2.9%

The latest Circana U.S. Demand Signals Report reveals a consumer market defined by caution, discipline, and increasingly selective spending.

Economic pressure remains real. Yet consumers are not abandoning quality altogether. They are making more deliberate choices about where they save, where they spend, and which products remain worth paying more for.

Consumer Confidence Is Under Pressure

U.S. consumer confidence declined for the second consecutive month in early September.

Although August inflation remained stable at 3.4%, sharply rising gasoline prices increased pressure on household budgets. Higher interest rates may add further strain by increasing borrowing costs.

The effect is already visible in softer convenience-store sales and reduced travel demand. Consumers are not withdrawing from the market, but they are approaching purchases with greater scrutiny.

Demand Remains Stable but Constrained

Food and beverage volume declined by 0.4% during the latest four-week period. Produce was the largest drag, partly because consumers had not fully returned to normal purchasing patterns following the Cyclospora outbreak.

Excluding produce, food and beverage volume was nearly flat at 0.1%, indicating purchasing discipline rather than a broad collapse in demand.

Non-food CPG unit sales declined by 1.1%, while dollar sales increased by 2.9%. Consumers are buying fewer products but remain willing to spend more when they see sufficient value, quality, health benefits, or enjoyment.

Inflation Is Easing — but Value Scrutiny Is Not

Food and beverage price growth moderated to 1.8%, with inflation slowing or stabilizing across most segments.

Non-food CPG price and mix growth reached 4%, although underlying inflation continued to ease.

Lower inflation does not mean shoppers will return to less disciplined purchasing. Consumers have developed stronger value filters and are making more intentional trade-offs across brands, categories, and channels.

Premium Products Can Still Win

Economic pressure is not producing universal trade-down behavior.

Premium brands continue to perform as consumers seek better quality, improved health outcomes, and elevated everyday experiences.
The emerging mindset is not simply “buy the cheapest.” It is:

Buy less. Choose carefully. Pay more when the value is clear.

This creates an opportunity for brands capable of delivering the right combination of relevance, availability, quality, and execution.

Precision Is Becoming the New Growth Strategy

In this environment, CPG companies have less room for execution errors.

Every out-of-stock product, missing promotion, incorrect price, or poorly executed display can shift a selective shopper toward another product, brand, or retailer.

AI can help companies respond faster by converting changing market and store-level signals into precise actions. AI agents can identify the stores and SKUs most affected by shifting demand, prioritize the highest-impact execution gaps, and tailor tasks for each location.

During the store visit, they can guide field representatives, verify availability, prices, promotions, and displays, and recommend corrective actions while the representative is still at the shelf. Headquarters gains real-time visibility into what is changing, what action has been taken, and whether execution has improved.

This moves AI beyond retrospective analysis. It becomes a way to translate market volatility into immediate, measurable action at the point where purchasing decisions happen.

The market is not frozen. But broad strategies alone are no longer enough to capture growth.

Brands must understand where demand remains resilient, identify the consumers still willing to pay for value, and ensure that their strategy is executed correctly at every shelf.